# TCUP 2025 Panel 1: The Geopolitical Landscape February 24, 2025 Maria Montague - [ News ](/news-categories/news) ![Panel 1 Audience](/sites/g/files/omnuum4931/files/styles/hwp_1_1__960x960_scale/public/2025-02/panel%201%20audience.jpg?itok=NJ1_08zP) *Photo Credit: Sham Sthankiya*The opening panel of the 2025 TCUP conference explored the geopolitical conditions affecting the Russo-Ukrainian war, with a focus on the environment. Moderator Margarita Balmaceda (Seton Hall University) opened the panel with a reflection on the new sense of time that we have experienced since the inauguration of Donald Trump, with the wave of executive orders changing the geopolitical landscape at an unprecedented pace. She encouraged us, though, to also take a longer look at the past nearly 11 years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as the much larger context of ‘planetary time’ and human-created climate change, and how these forces interconnect in today’s geopolitics. ### Disruption to Ukraine’s Agriculture and Global Food Systems Balmaceda first invited Suresh Babu, from the International Food Policy Research Institute, to give an overview of the damage to Ukraine’s agricultural production caused by Russia’s war, and the impact that this has had on global food systems. Babu noted that before the war, Ukraine was a leading exporter of agricultural commodities to Africa and the Middle East. Russia’s war has inflicted an estimated $40 billion in damages to Ukraine’s agricultural sector, including destroyed infrastructure, lost production, and disrupted trade. This has driven up global food prices and worsened food insecurity in import-dependent parts of the Global South. ### A Changing Landscape of Diplomacy Polina Beliakova (MIT) was hopeful that European countries would keep their policy toward Ukraine based on values—morality, democracy, defense against genocide—but highlighted the shift of the new US administration towards a transactional approach, with the panel repeatedly underlining Donald Trump’s professed interest in Ukrainian critical minerals as a valuable negotiating edge. ![Polina Beliakova](/sites/g/files/omnuum4931/files/styles/hwp_1_1__960x960_scale/public/2025-02/Panel%201%20Polina%20Beliakova.jpg?itok=W9pJWlXc) *Photo Credit: Sham Sthankiya*The panelists agreed that Zelensky and his administration are navigating this landscape as well as possible, tailoring its diplomacy with the US towards Trump’s transactional focus, while continuing to underline the values at the core of this war in its diplomacy with Europe. Olga Khakova (Atlantic Council) emphasized that Ukraine is fighting not just for itself, but for European and Western security and democracy. The war is not contained to Ukraine’s borders, and Russia is constantly attacking Western interests directly, including critical energy infrastructure via cyberattacks and cable cutting in the Baltic Sea. She underscored that supporting Ukraine is fundamentally in the West’s interest. ### Challenges and Opportunities in Ukrainian Relations with the Global South Beliakova forecasted a retrenchment of US soft power under the new administration, including cuts to USAID. She warned that this could create an opening for Russia and China to influence the Global South, making it more challenging for Ukraine to build diplomatic and economic partnerships in the region. Thammy Evans (Atlantic Council) took a more optimistic note, suggesting that there could be opportunities for Ukraine to turn disruptions in the geopolitical arena to its advantage. In particular, she emphasized that Russia’s economy is showing signs of long-term vulnerability, and she suggested that Ukraine should be prepared to capitalize on this weakness by looking for trade opportunities with the Global South. Looking at how Ukraine could adapt to a new geopolitical environment, Babu also pointed to increased cooperation with the Global South, not just resuming the supply of vital foodstuffs, but sharing the expertise developed during its wartime experience of food system disruption. Khakova also praised the sacrifice of Ukrainian farmers risking their lives to keep up food production. She also noted that Ukraine has the expertise to offer in digital innovations, which were developing rapidly in Ukraine even before the full-scale invasion, with apps like DIIA improving access to government services. ### Ukraine’s Green Energy Potential Panelists agreed that Ukraine must modernize, decarbonize, and improve its resilience, not simply rebuild in its old form. Khakova highlighted Ukraine’s vast potential for green energy, particularly in biomethane production, which aligns with European energy needs. Evans emphasized the importance of a circular economy approach to reconstruction, ensuring that Ukraine does not just replace lost infrastructure but instead builds a more sustainable, resource-efficient economy. Evans voiced her hope for Ukraine to become a leader in regenerative practices in farming and other sectors – a particularly important priority for Ukraine to maintain its exceptionally fertile soil. ![Thammy Evans](/sites/g/files/omnuum4931/files/styles/hwp_1_1__960x960_scale/public/2025-02/panel%201%20thammy%20evans.jpg?itok=UAqZZ4v-) *Photo Credit: Sham Sthankiya*### A Balancing Act for Future Economic Planning To take advantage of the opportunity to reconfigure its economy, the panel recommended Ukraine prioritize investing delicately and in concert with its allies. Balmaceda noted that Ukraine’s future planning for energy and mineral exports should avoid direct competition with key European constituencies, as learned from Ukraine’s past tensions with Poland over grain exports. Khakova emphasized that safety from air attacks would be a seismic shift in rebuilding industry and investment in Ukraine, with so much support waiting to jump in when the situation is safe. While Ukraine’s NATO aspirations remain a long-term goal, some panelists argued that bilateral security agreements could support Ukraine in the shorter term to strengthen Ukraine’s military resilience and promote investment in the country. Khakova also noted that a reduction in US humanitarian support will require greater European efforts to secure Ukraine’s electricity provision, meanwhile, the American ambition to displace Russia’s oil and gas sales to Europe could stop a key source of Russian income, weakening its ability to sustain the war. Overall, panelists agreed the path ahead for Ukraine will not be an easy one – but the country is well-positioned to leverage its resources, strengthen partnerships with its allies, and improve relations with the countries in the Global South. WATCH NOW: [TCUP 2025 Panel 1 — English](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkDNbzGedBw) WATCH NOW: [TCUP 2025 Panel 1 — Ukrainian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHucSfbaJ2E) Share on:- [ Facebook ](#) - [ Twitter ](#) - [ Linkedin ](#)